The current situation around Syria eerily resembles the situation Iraq ended up in shortly before the war of 2003. The first Gulf war ended on 28 February 1991 with a cease-fire negotiated between the UN Coalition and Iraq. In October 1998, removing the Hussein regime became official U.S. foreign policy with enactment of the Iraq Liberation Act, which followed the expulsion of UN weapons inspectors the preceding August (after some had been accused of spying for the U.S.). The Iraq Liberation Act provided $97 million for Iraqi "democratic opposition organizations" to "establish a program to support a transition to democracy in Iraq."
However, it would take a full-scale military ground operation to remove Saddam Hussein from power. Moreover, the plans included protracted stay in Iraq as well as a long going campaign against a number of other countries in the Middle East, South Africa, and Central Asia. That effectively meant a prolonged military campaign, or a series of military campaigns, against several Arab nations. Such a drastic development in American foreign policy required a special pushing factor to justify the U.S. going into war against half of the Arab World. Such a Pearl Harbor event took place on 11 September 2001.
Shortly after 11 September 2001 (on 20 September), President Bush addressed a joint session of Congress and announced his new "War on Terror". The subsequent diplomatic and military campaign against Iraq was unleashed later on within the framework of the global war on terror. Political preparations for the war began during the period of weapons inspections in Iraq over the winter of 2002–2003, carried out by a team of inspectors led by Hans Blix with the authority of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441.
Resolution 1441 gave Iraq "a final opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations" and set up inspections by the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Hussein accepted the resolution on 13 November 2001 and inspectors returned to Iraq under the direction of UNMOVIC chairman Hans Blix and IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei.
By February 2003, the IAEA "found no evidence or plausible indication of the revival of a nuclear weapons program in Iraq". UNMOVIC "did not find evidence of the continuation or resumption of programs of weapons of mass destruction" or significant quantities of proscribed items. Shortly before the invasion, which lasted from 19 March 2003 to 1 May 2003 and signaled the start of the conflict that later came to be known as the Iraq War, UNMOVIC stated that it would take "months" to verify Iraqi compliance with resolution 1441.
There was also the so-called "second resolution", which was drafted and presented to the UN Security Council. It was a tough resolution, calling for immediate compliance with the previous resolutions requiring disarmament, and setting a 10-day deadline for compliance. It was an unrealistic ultimatum designed to provide the U.S. with a cause for war, and it met considerable opposition in the UN Security Council, with opponents including France, China, and Germany.
After a period of “intense diplomacy”, President Bush met with his British, Spanish and Portuguese counterparts, Prime Minister Tony Blair, Prime Minister José María Aznar and Prime Minister José Manuel Barroso in the Azores, Portugal on March 15 and 16 2003. They declared that "diplomacy had failed" and announced the intention to drop the proposed resolution. Lacking the "second resolution", the U.S. announced its intention to attack Iraq regardless if Saddam Hussein did not abdicate.
In the meantime, U.S. was busy preparing for a large-scale ground operation in Iraq. Besides mundane intelligence gathering in Iraq during the inspections by UNMOVIC and IAEA, the Central Intelligence Agency's Special Activities Division (SAD) teams, consisting of the 2/504 PIR and the 7th special forces group carried out clandestine operations inside the country. They happened to be the first U.S. forces to enter Iraq, in July 2002, before the main invasion.
The CIA's secret mission, codenamed “Operation Hotel California”, was carried out inside Iraq by a group of eight Paramilitary Operations Officers from SAD and the Army's 10th Special Forces Group. On 10 July 2002, they crossed the Harburr River from Turkey into Kurdistan. Once on the ground, they linked with the local Kurdish Resistance and prepared for the subsequent arrival of U.S. Army Special Forces. That joint team (called the Northern Iraq Liaison Element (NILE)) had taken control of the territory previously occupied by local militia groups and secured the area before the main invasion took place. The battle resulted in the capture of a chemical weapons facility at Sargat. Sargat was the only facility of its type discovered in the Iraq war.
Thus, any U.S. “political” and “diplomatic” initiatives regarding the “inspections”, “disarmament”, and “search” of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq prior to the war turned out to be nothing but another stage in preparations for the military attack by the U.S. at the time. The current conflict in Syria has already entered its “diplomatic” phase, leading to the imminent “inspections” and “search” for the chemical weapons in Syria, amid impatient calls to Bashar Al-Assad for “disarmament” and “compliance”.
The U.N. has already stated that it would take months to inventory and stockpile the caches of Syrian chemical weapons, while some experts have expressed doubts that it would be virtually impossible to carry out such an operation during ongoing civil war. Meanwhile, the U.S. has announced that it has begun supplying high tech military equipment, weaponry and ammunitions to the Syrian opposition forces, fighting inside Syria.
The White House displays dogged determination to topple Syrian government and allow Syrian opposition forces, largely made up of CIA-controlled groups of Islamic fundamentalists, take control of the country. It is just a matter of time before U.S. president Barack Obama and his warmongering Secretary of State John Kerry announced that “diplomacy has failed” and set Bashar Al-Assad an unrealistic ultimatum to “comply” or abdicate. Such scenario is most realistic, as new shipments of the above-mentioned weaponry have already been delivered to Al-Qaeda fighters inside Syria.
It means that the fighting in Syria will continue as U.N. inspectors are trying to inventory and destroy Syrian chemical weapons. That arouses a lot questions concerning the issues of security and working conditions of the U.N. inspectors. Possible disruptions in the disarmament process caused by the opposition, whose leaders have already publicly rejected Russia’s proposal to hand over Syrian chemical weapons, might lead to failure to meet any deadlines with this respect and spell increasingly tougher measures against Syrian government. Meanwhile, Syrian opposition would only win from any delays in the diplomatic process.
Secretary of State John Kerry has stated yesterday that the turnover of weapons must be complete, verifiable and timely - “and finally, there ought to consequences if it doesn't take place.” It would be difficult for Syria to turn over its chemical arsenals “in strict compliance with the rules that are established by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons”, as promised by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Especially so, if the U.S. will continue to treat Syria as an exceptional case and require that Syria should face tougher standards than other countries.
If Syrian opposition continues to receive military and logistical support from the U.S., the conditions on the ground will be almost impossible to make any diplomacy work. Most certainly Islamic fighters on the ground will do everything possible to disrupt Russian plans. Kerry, who met earlier Thursday with Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N.-Arab League envoy for Syria, has reiterated, “President Obama has been clear that should diplomacy fail, force might be necessary to deter and degrade Assad's capacity to deliver these weapons,” he said. “It won't get rid of them, but it could change his willingness to use them.”
Meanwhile, White House National Security Council spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan said the administration could not “detail every single type of support that we are providing to the opposition or discuss timelines for delivery, but it's important to note that both the political and the military opposition are and will be receiving this assistance.”
There is already a sign of the Syrian conflict entering another stage of military, rather than diplomatic, preparations on the part of the U.S. for a larger ground attack against Syria. Current and former U.S. intelligence officials said the CIA has arranged for the Syrian opposition forces to receive additional anti-tank weaponry such as rocket-propelled grenades through a third party, presumably one of the Gulf countries that have been arming the Arab mercenaries and numerous Al-Qaeda-affiliated combatants in Syria.
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