Islamization of Europe
Islam
is widely considered Europe's fastest growing religion, with
immigration and above average birth rates leading to a rapid increase in
the Muslim population.
The total Muslim population, including immigrant and native born, in Western Europe is about 20 million of the EU's 500 million residents. Some experts contend the continuing influx of immigration from Islamic countries, along with higher immigrant birth rates and lower native European birth rates, mean Muslims in Western Europe could significantly increase in coming decades.
The largest demographic change could come from Turkey, currently discussing entry procedures with the European Union. That alone effectively would increase the Muslim population in the EU by some 70 million.
In 2030, Muslims are projected to make up more than 10% of the total population in 10 European countries: Kosovo (93.5%), Albania (83.2%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (42.7%), Republic of Macedonia (40.3%), Montenegro (21.5%), Bulgaria (15.7%), Russia (14.4%), Georgia (11.5%), France (10.3%) and Belgium (10.2%).
One reason the Muslim population of Europe is projected to rise, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the population, is because Muslims’ fertility rates are generally higher than those of non-Muslims in Europe.
Based on an analysis of current trends in the 25 European countries for which data are available, Muslim women today will have an average of 2.2 children each, compared with an estimated average of 1.5 children each for non-Muslim women in Europe. However, the fertility gap between Muslims and non-Muslims in Europe is expected to narrow in the coming years. By 2025-30, the average fertility rate for Muslim women in the 25 countries for which data are available is expected to drop to 2.0 children per woman, while the average fertility rate for non-Muslim women is projected to increase slightly, to 1.6 children per woman.
A major factor in the growth of Europe’s Muslim population in recent decades has been the large influx of immigrants from South Asia, North Africa, Turkey and other parts of the developing world.
In France, as of mid-2010, Muslims were expected to account for more than two-thirds of all new immigrants (68.5%) for the year. France was expected to see a net gain of almost 66,000 Muslim immigrants in 2010, primarily from North Africa.
The United Kingdom’s net inflow of Muslim immigrants in 2010 (64,000) was forecast to be nearly as large as France’s. More than a quarter of all immigrants to the U.K. in 2010 (28.1%) were expected to be Muslim.
Muslim populations in Europe today are more youthful than their non-Muslim counterparts. People under age 30 comprise about 49% of the Muslim population in Europe in 2010, compared with about 34% of the non-Muslim population. Europe’s Muslim population is projected to remain relatively youthful in the coming two decades. In 2030, about 42% of Europe’s Muslim population is expected to be under age 30, compared with about 31% of the non-Muslim population.
Total and Muslim population in Europe in 2001 (2004) figures:
FRANCE
Total population: 62.3 million
Muslim population: Five to six million (8-9.6%)
GERMANY
Total population: 82.5 million
Muslim population: 3 million (3.6%)
AUSTRIA
Total population: 8.2 million
Muslim population: 339,000 (4.1%)
SWITZERLAND
Total population: 7.4 million
Muslim population: 310,800 (4.2%)
NETHERLANDS
Total population: 16.3 million
Muslim population: 945,000 or 5.8%
DENMARK
Total population: 5.4 million
Muslim population: 270,000 (5%)
BELGIUM
Total population: 10.3 million
Muslim population: 0.4 million (4%)
SWEDEN
Total population: 9 million
Muslim population: 300,000 (3%)
ITALY
Total population: 58.4 million
Muslim population: 825,000 (1.4%)
SPAIN
Total population: 43.1 million
Muslim population: 1 million (2.3%)
ALBANIA
Total population: 3.1 million
Muslim population: 2.2 million (70%)
BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA
Total population: 3.8 million
Muslim population: 1.5 million (40%)
MACEDONIA
Total population: 2.1 million
Muslim population: 630,000 (30%)
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO (WITH KOSOVO)
Total population: 10.8 million (including Kosovo); 8.1 million (excluding Kosovo)
Muslim population: Serbia and Montenegro - 405,000 (5%); Kosovo - about 1.8 million (90%)
TURKEY
Total population: 68.7 million
Muslim population: 68 million (99%)
UNITED KINGDOM
Total population: 58.8 million
Muslim population: 1.6 million (2.8%)
The number of Muslims in Europe has grown from 29.6 million in 1990 to 44.1 million in 2010. Europe’s Muslim population is projected to exceed 58 million by 2030. Muslims today account for about 6% of Europe’s total population, up from 4.1% in 1990. By 2030, Muslims are expected to make up 8% of Europe’s population.
The number of Muslims in Europe is expected to grow by about the same amount in the next 20 years as it did in the previous two decades. From 1990 to 2010, the number of Muslims in Europe increased by about 14.5 million. In the next 20 years, the number of Muslims in the region is forecast to increase by roughly 14 million, albeit from a higher base.
Western Europe, which includes France, Germany and the Netherlands, is expected to have the biggest numerical increase in the size of its Muslim population. The number of Muslims living in this part of Europe is projected to increase by 5.1 million, from 11.3 million in 2010 to 16.4 million in 2030. The Muslim share of Western Europe’s total population is expected to increase from 6.0% in 2010 to 8.6% in 2030
The number of Muslims living in Northern Europe, which includes the United Kingdom, is expected to increase from 3.8 million in 2010 to 7.5 million in 2030. Muslims are expected to make up 7.0% of Northern Europe’s population, up from 3.8% in 2010.
The number of Muslims in Southern Europe – which includes Balkan countries such as Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Republic of Macedonia and Serbia, as well as Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain – is projected to increase by 3.1 million, from 10.7 million in 2010 to 13.8 million in 2030. Southern Europe as a whole has a higher proportion of
Muslims than Eastern Europe; 6.9% of the population in Southern Europe today is Muslim, compared with 6.2% of the population in Eastern Europe. By 2030, 8.8% of people living in Southern Europe are expected to be Muslim, compared with 7.6% of the population in Eastern Europe.
Most of the growth in Eastern Europe’s Muslim population during the decades studied occurred from 1990 to 2000, when the percentage of Muslims in the population jumped from 4.9% to 6.2%. This increase followed the collapse of communism, when religious identity and expression became more acceptable throughout Eastern Europe. The total number of Muslims in Eastern Europe is expected to increase from 18.4 million in 2010 to 20.6 million in 2030.
Russia will continue to be the European country with the largest Muslim population in the next 20 years. The number of Muslims in Russia is expected to grow from 16.4 million in 2010 to 18.6 million in 2030. Muslims are projected to make up 14.4% of Russia’s total population in 2030, up from 11.7% in 2010.
The United Kingdom is expected to have the largest increase in the number of Muslims in Europe in the next 20 years. The number of Muslims in the U.K. is projected to almost double from 2.9 million in 2010 to 5.6 million in 2030. By 2030, Muslims are expected to make up 8.2% of the U.K.’s population, up from 4.6% in 2010. The United Kingdom is forecast to have roughly the same number of Muslims as Germany by 2030.
France’s Muslim population is expected to climb from 4.7 million in 2010 to 6.9 million in 2030. Germany’s Muslim population is expected to increase from 4.1 million to 5.5 million during this period. Although Italy, Sweden, Spain, Belgium and Austria have smaller numbers of Muslims than the U.K., Germany and France, their Muslim populations are forecast to grow significantly in the next 20 years. The Muslim populations in Italy and Sweden are projected to more than double in size, while those in Spain, Belgium and Austria will likely increase significantly.
Though Ireland has a relatively small Muslim population, it is expected to have the largest percentage increase in Europe in the number of Muslims. Its Muslim population is projected to increase by almost 188%. Other European countries expected to have percentage increases of more than 100% include Finland, Norway, Sweden and Italy. Countries projected to have percentage increases of 50-100% include the United Kingdom, Spain, Belgium, Austria and Switzerland. The Republic of Macedonia is projected to have the largest increase in the portion of its population that is Muslim. By 2030, Muslims are expected to make up 40.3% of Macedonia’s population, up 5.4 percentage points from 2010 (34.9% Muslim). In Sweden, the Muslim share of the population is projected to increase by five percentage points, from 4.9% in 2010 to 9.9% in 2030.
Conclusion
In the latter years of the 20th century, the 27 countries of the EU attracted about half a million more people a year than left. Since 2002, however, net migration into the EU has roughly tripled to between 1.6 million and two million people per year.
The increased pace has made a nonsense of previous forecasts. In 2004, the EU thought its population would decline by 16 million by 2050. Now it thinks it will increase by 10 million by 2060. Britain is expected to become the most populous EU country by 2060, with 77 million inhabitants. Right now, it has 20 million fewer people than Germany. Italy's population was expected to fall precipitously; now it is predicted to stay flat.
The study for the US Air Force by Leon Perkowski in 2006 found that there were at least 15 million Muslims in the EU, and possibly as many as 23 million. They are not uniformly distributed, of course. According to the US's Migration Policy Institute, residents of Muslim faith will account for more than 20 per cent of the EU population by 2050 but already do so in a number of cities. Whites will be in a minority in Birmingham by 2026, says Christopher Caldwell, an American journalist, and even sooner in Leicester. Another forecast holds that Muslims could outnumber non-Muslims in France and perhaps in all of Western Europe by mid-century. Austria was 90 per cent Catholic in the 20th century but Islam could be the majority religion among Austrians aged under 15 by 2050, says Mr Caldwell.
There is a problem with demographic forecasts, though. They tend to assume that the world is constant and often make their calculations accordingly. However, the world is not constant. The world is changing. Europe as we know it will soon cease to exist. European growth comes largely from Islamic immigration. The proportion of Muslim youth in European urban centers is already very high and going up to 40%-50%. Currently the average Muslim population makes just 3-5% in most European countries. The world is a constantly changing place, though, and so is Europe. The growing Islamic minority there has already spurned serious debates on issues of immigration and Islam.
However, politically mainstreamed Europe continues in its liberal tradition of being an invariably tolerant society. Which means that the Muslim population in Europe is going to grow. Most probably, it will be growing at an increasingly growing rate, too. Given the waning popularity of Christian religion among the white Europeans and the current demographic shift, soon there will be more mosques and other various Islamic culture-building centers than churches in Europe, which in the second half of the 21-st century, perhaps, will increasingly look and behave like a typical Islamic Civilization.
The total Muslim population, including immigrant and native born, in Western Europe is about 20 million of the EU's 500 million residents. Some experts contend the continuing influx of immigration from Islamic countries, along with higher immigrant birth rates and lower native European birth rates, mean Muslims in Western Europe could significantly increase in coming decades.
The largest demographic change could come from Turkey, currently discussing entry procedures with the European Union. That alone effectively would increase the Muslim population in the EU by some 70 million.
In 2030, Muslims are projected to make up more than 10% of the total population in 10 European countries: Kosovo (93.5%), Albania (83.2%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (42.7%), Republic of Macedonia (40.3%), Montenegro (21.5%), Bulgaria (15.7%), Russia (14.4%), Georgia (11.5%), France (10.3%) and Belgium (10.2%).
One reason the Muslim population of Europe is projected to rise, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the population, is because Muslims’ fertility rates are generally higher than those of non-Muslims in Europe.
Based on an analysis of current trends in the 25 European countries for which data are available, Muslim women today will have an average of 2.2 children each, compared with an estimated average of 1.5 children each for non-Muslim women in Europe. However, the fertility gap between Muslims and non-Muslims in Europe is expected to narrow in the coming years. By 2025-30, the average fertility rate for Muslim women in the 25 countries for which data are available is expected to drop to 2.0 children per woman, while the average fertility rate for non-Muslim women is projected to increase slightly, to 1.6 children per woman.
A major factor in the growth of Europe’s Muslim population in recent decades has been the large influx of immigrants from South Asia, North Africa, Turkey and other parts of the developing world.
In France, as of mid-2010, Muslims were expected to account for more than two-thirds of all new immigrants (68.5%) for the year. France was expected to see a net gain of almost 66,000 Muslim immigrants in 2010, primarily from North Africa.
The United Kingdom’s net inflow of Muslim immigrants in 2010 (64,000) was forecast to be nearly as large as France’s. More than a quarter of all immigrants to the U.K. in 2010 (28.1%) were expected to be Muslim.
Muslim populations in Europe today are more youthful than their non-Muslim counterparts. People under age 30 comprise about 49% of the Muslim population in Europe in 2010, compared with about 34% of the non-Muslim population. Europe’s Muslim population is projected to remain relatively youthful in the coming two decades. In 2030, about 42% of Europe’s Muslim population is expected to be under age 30, compared with about 31% of the non-Muslim population.
Total and Muslim population in Europe in 2001 (2004) figures:
FRANCE
Total population: 62.3 million
Muslim population: Five to six million (8-9.6%)
GERMANY
Total population: 82.5 million
Muslim population: 3 million (3.6%)
AUSTRIA
Total population: 8.2 million
Muslim population: 339,000 (4.1%)
SWITZERLAND
Total population: 7.4 million
Muslim population: 310,800 (4.2%)
NETHERLANDS
Total population: 16.3 million
Muslim population: 945,000 or 5.8%
DENMARK
Total population: 5.4 million
Muslim population: 270,000 (5%)
BELGIUM
Total population: 10.3 million
Muslim population: 0.4 million (4%)
SWEDEN
Total population: 9 million
Muslim population: 300,000 (3%)
ITALY
Total population: 58.4 million
Muslim population: 825,000 (1.4%)
SPAIN
Total population: 43.1 million
Muslim population: 1 million (2.3%)
ALBANIA
Total population: 3.1 million
Muslim population: 2.2 million (70%)
BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA
Total population: 3.8 million
Muslim population: 1.5 million (40%)
MACEDONIA
Total population: 2.1 million
Muslim population: 630,000 (30%)
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO (WITH KOSOVO)
Total population: 10.8 million (including Kosovo); 8.1 million (excluding Kosovo)
Muslim population: Serbia and Montenegro - 405,000 (5%); Kosovo - about 1.8 million (90%)
TURKEY
Total population: 68.7 million
Muslim population: 68 million (99%)
UNITED KINGDOM
Total population: 58.8 million
Muslim population: 1.6 million (2.8%)
The number of Muslims in Europe has grown from 29.6 million in 1990 to 44.1 million in 2010. Europe’s Muslim population is projected to exceed 58 million by 2030. Muslims today account for about 6% of Europe’s total population, up from 4.1% in 1990. By 2030, Muslims are expected to make up 8% of Europe’s population.
The number of Muslims in Europe is expected to grow by about the same amount in the next 20 years as it did in the previous two decades. From 1990 to 2010, the number of Muslims in Europe increased by about 14.5 million. In the next 20 years, the number of Muslims in the region is forecast to increase by roughly 14 million, albeit from a higher base.
Western Europe, which includes France, Germany and the Netherlands, is expected to have the biggest numerical increase in the size of its Muslim population. The number of Muslims living in this part of Europe is projected to increase by 5.1 million, from 11.3 million in 2010 to 16.4 million in 2030. The Muslim share of Western Europe’s total population is expected to increase from 6.0% in 2010 to 8.6% in 2030
The number of Muslims living in Northern Europe, which includes the United Kingdom, is expected to increase from 3.8 million in 2010 to 7.5 million in 2030. Muslims are expected to make up 7.0% of Northern Europe’s population, up from 3.8% in 2010.
The number of Muslims in Southern Europe – which includes Balkan countries such as Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Republic of Macedonia and Serbia, as well as Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain – is projected to increase by 3.1 million, from 10.7 million in 2010 to 13.8 million in 2030. Southern Europe as a whole has a higher proportion of
Muslims than Eastern Europe; 6.9% of the population in Southern Europe today is Muslim, compared with 6.2% of the population in Eastern Europe. By 2030, 8.8% of people living in Southern Europe are expected to be Muslim, compared with 7.6% of the population in Eastern Europe.
Most of the growth in Eastern Europe’s Muslim population during the decades studied occurred from 1990 to 2000, when the percentage of Muslims in the population jumped from 4.9% to 6.2%. This increase followed the collapse of communism, when religious identity and expression became more acceptable throughout Eastern Europe. The total number of Muslims in Eastern Europe is expected to increase from 18.4 million in 2010 to 20.6 million in 2030.
Russia will continue to be the European country with the largest Muslim population in the next 20 years. The number of Muslims in Russia is expected to grow from 16.4 million in 2010 to 18.6 million in 2030. Muslims are projected to make up 14.4% of Russia’s total population in 2030, up from 11.7% in 2010.
The United Kingdom is expected to have the largest increase in the number of Muslims in Europe in the next 20 years. The number of Muslims in the U.K. is projected to almost double from 2.9 million in 2010 to 5.6 million in 2030. By 2030, Muslims are expected to make up 8.2% of the U.K.’s population, up from 4.6% in 2010. The United Kingdom is forecast to have roughly the same number of Muslims as Germany by 2030.
France’s Muslim population is expected to climb from 4.7 million in 2010 to 6.9 million in 2030. Germany’s Muslim population is expected to increase from 4.1 million to 5.5 million during this period. Although Italy, Sweden, Spain, Belgium and Austria have smaller numbers of Muslims than the U.K., Germany and France, their Muslim populations are forecast to grow significantly in the next 20 years. The Muslim populations in Italy and Sweden are projected to more than double in size, while those in Spain, Belgium and Austria will likely increase significantly.
Though Ireland has a relatively small Muslim population, it is expected to have the largest percentage increase in Europe in the number of Muslims. Its Muslim population is projected to increase by almost 188%. Other European countries expected to have percentage increases of more than 100% include Finland, Norway, Sweden and Italy. Countries projected to have percentage increases of 50-100% include the United Kingdom, Spain, Belgium, Austria and Switzerland. The Republic of Macedonia is projected to have the largest increase in the portion of its population that is Muslim. By 2030, Muslims are expected to make up 40.3% of Macedonia’s population, up 5.4 percentage points from 2010 (34.9% Muslim). In Sweden, the Muslim share of the population is projected to increase by five percentage points, from 4.9% in 2010 to 9.9% in 2030.
Conclusion
In the latter years of the 20th century, the 27 countries of the EU attracted about half a million more people a year than left. Since 2002, however, net migration into the EU has roughly tripled to between 1.6 million and two million people per year.
The increased pace has made a nonsense of previous forecasts. In 2004, the EU thought its population would decline by 16 million by 2050. Now it thinks it will increase by 10 million by 2060. Britain is expected to become the most populous EU country by 2060, with 77 million inhabitants. Right now, it has 20 million fewer people than Germany. Italy's population was expected to fall precipitously; now it is predicted to stay flat.
The study for the US Air Force by Leon Perkowski in 2006 found that there were at least 15 million Muslims in the EU, and possibly as many as 23 million. They are not uniformly distributed, of course. According to the US's Migration Policy Institute, residents of Muslim faith will account for more than 20 per cent of the EU population by 2050 but already do so in a number of cities. Whites will be in a minority in Birmingham by 2026, says Christopher Caldwell, an American journalist, and even sooner in Leicester. Another forecast holds that Muslims could outnumber non-Muslims in France and perhaps in all of Western Europe by mid-century. Austria was 90 per cent Catholic in the 20th century but Islam could be the majority religion among Austrians aged under 15 by 2050, says Mr Caldwell.
There is a problem with demographic forecasts, though. They tend to assume that the world is constant and often make their calculations accordingly. However, the world is not constant. The world is changing. Europe as we know it will soon cease to exist. European growth comes largely from Islamic immigration. The proportion of Muslim youth in European urban centers is already very high and going up to 40%-50%. Currently the average Muslim population makes just 3-5% in most European countries. The world is a constantly changing place, though, and so is Europe. The growing Islamic minority there has already spurned serious debates on issues of immigration and Islam.
However, politically mainstreamed Europe continues in its liberal tradition of being an invariably tolerant society. Which means that the Muslim population in Europe is going to grow. Most probably, it will be growing at an increasingly growing rate, too. Given the waning popularity of Christian religion among the white Europeans and the current demographic shift, soon there will be more mosques and other various Islamic culture-building centers than churches in Europe, which in the second half of the 21-st century, perhaps, will increasingly look and behave like a typical Islamic Civilization.
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